Agricultural Decision Analysis: The Causal Challenge

The paper sets out the agenda for reviewing models of decision making in the context of farmers’ use of seasonal climate forecasting. Such forecasts have been framed in terms of shifts in cumulative distribution functions of yields or gross margins. Typically they have been applied to choices about crop variety, crop type, time of planting or level of fertiliser application. Fundamental questions are: how do farmers conceptualise and make use of the information contained in seasonal climate forecasts? Do our models of decision making represent well the way in which these decisions are made?decision making, farmers, seasonal climate forecasts, conceptualisation, review,

Can the Australian exchange rate still be considered a commodity based currency?

The Australian dollar is considered a commodity-based currency, with the high level of primary commodity exports in Australia’s trade balance given as an explanation. Key studies have concluded that Australia’s terms of trade are a primary driver of the real exchange rate based on a comparative advantage trade model. These studies have been undertaken at an aggregate level where changes in the terms of trade have been assumed as a given. Since the Australian economy was deregulated in the early 1980s, there have been dramatic changes in the structure of the economy. Australia’s trading activity has grown and now contributes more within the domestic economy. Similarly the structure and contribution of key imports and exports has also evolved. Furthermore the role of the traded goods and services balance and the income balance within the Australian current account balance has also changed, with a significant change occurring in 2003/04. The purpose of this paper is twofold. Firstly it establishes whether the relationship between the Australian exchange rate and terms of trade has changed in response to changes in the role of the traded goods and services sector within the Australian current account balance. Secondly the paper disaggregates the movements in the terms of trade to establish what role its various components have on the wider relationship between the Australian exchange rate and the terms of trade. The paper concludes that despite substantial changes in the structure and nature of the current account balance and the traded goods and services sector, the Australian exchange rate still responds to changes in the terms of trade as if it is still a commodity-based currency and economy.Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade,

Communicating Climate Change: A Literature Review

For climate scientists, climate change is a problem that has a significant chance of having catastrophic environmental, social and economic consequences during the course of this century. In contrast, public opinion seems to regard with scepticism the pronouncements on climate change that emanate from the scientific community. Why the difference? This is what our research project was designed to examine. Or to put it another way: Assuming that the scientific information is correct, and that without a dramatic change in technology (and policy to promote such a change) there would be a significant risk of man-made, global catastrophe, what must be done to communicate this urgent issue to the public? We have approached the analysis of this problem by reviewing the literature on communicating climate change. By organising the literature according to the role of the major groups of participants in the information transfer process, useful insights can be gleaned. These groups include scientists, business, the government, the media and the general public. This analysis leads to an overall model of the information transfer process that highlights various issues including the role that the media plays as a lens through which the public observes scientific results.Climate change, media, scientists, business, government, the general public, literature review, Environmental Economics and Policy, Marketing, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, 1402,

Forecasting dairy herd development in China

With the rapid development of the Chinese dairy industry, various researchers have examined the industry from many perspectives related to supply and demand. One of the most important factors for this industry is the total number of dairy cows and it is this aspect that will be addressed in this paper. This paper examines how economic and biological factors influenced the size of the Chinese dairy herd population using an autoregressive distributed lag model and a dairy herd inventory model. The estimated results showed that the biological process was dominating the development of the Chinese dairy herd. The ratio of milk to corn price, as an economic variable, is another factor that had an impact. Beef price, which was found to be an influential variable for the United States dairy cattle inventory did not have a significant impact on the Chinese dairy industry. This is expected to change as the dairy industry in China develops. Results from this study also suggest that Chinese farmers have a positive expectation in the long term towards the dairy industry and that there are high adjustment costs in dairy production in China. Finally, the projection results showed that it is very likely that the dairy cattle numbers in China would double between 2005 and 2010.dairy herd, China, cattle inventory model, projection, Livestock Production/Industries,

Supply Chain Practice, Supply Chain Performance Indicators and Competitive Advantage of Australian Beef Enterprises: A Conceptual Framework

This research focuses on an Australian agribusiness supply chain, the Australian Beef Supply Chain. The definition of the Australian Beef Supply Chain is the chain or sequence of all activities from the breeding property to the domestic or overseas consumers. The beef sector in Australia is undergoing rapid change because of globalisation, a highly competitive beef market (local and export), quicker production cycle and delivery times and consequently reduced inventories, a general speed-up of the rate of change in the business environment, the trend toward more outsourcing of activities, and the rapid development of IT. In this business environment, advanced supply chain systems have the potential to provide significant contributions to Australian beef industry performance. A conceptual framework of the research project has been proposed. There are three elements of conceptual framework. Firstly, supply chain practice of Australian beef industry consists of five sub-elements such as strategic supplier partnerships, customer relationships, information sharing, information quality and a lean system. Moreover, there is an antecedent of cooperative behaviour such as trust and commitment influencing supply chain practice and supply chain performance indicators. Secondly, supply chain performance indicators include four sub-elements such as flexibility, efficiency, food quality and responsiveness. Finally, the competitive advantage framework of the Australian beef enterprises consists of price, quality, export sales growth and time to market. As a further step of the research after developing the conceptual framework, the research project focuses the analysis on how the antecedents of the sub-elements of supply chain practice affect supply chain performance in Australian beef enterprises, how trust and commitment in trading partners affect supply chain performance, how attributes such as flexibility, efficiency, food quality and responsiveness influence the sub-elements of competitive advantage. The research project leads on to further work on how Australian beef enterprises measure their supply chain performance and what the major difficulties are arising when implementing supply chain management in the Australian beef industry and what kind of changes can be made to beef supply chains to enhance their performance.Agribusiness,

THE ANALYSIS OF SUPPLY RESPONSE OF RICE UNDER RISK IN JAMBI PROVINCE

Farmers’ supply responsiveness planting rice in Jambi Province was estimated using Meta- Profit analysis function. The objective of study is to analyze rice farmers’ supply response. Research was conducted in Jambi Province in the year of 2010. Result showed that farmers’ profit planting rice increased because its price increased. Furthermore, its share decreased when its labour wage increased. This implied to farmers to plant rice because rice was relatively more profitable than other plants. The result showed that farmers tended to pushed risk in planting decision. As expected that irrigation index was also the important significant factor. Following it found that its profit planting rice increased in wet season. This results were consistent with the fact that the water availability was important factor to plant rice. The consistency of previous result, it found that profit to plant rice was the positive determination with irrigation index. This implied that government policy in agriculture had positive impact on technological adoption. The analysis production function suggested that labour and fertilizer elasticities higher than zero significantly. Production rice elasticity by considering the number of labour used was a little bit lower than fertilizer. As expected, it found that rice production elasticity by considering irrigation index was bigger than zero significantly.Crop Production/Industries,

Book reviews

Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession,

Food Price Policy in Indonesia

Agricultural and Food Policy,

Farm Management in Australia: The Way Forward

This paper summarises the outcomes of a National Workshop in Farm Management, 5-6 December 2002, organised by the University of Sydney, Faculty of Rural Management, Orange. At this Workshop leading farmers, industry leaders, corporate representatives, academics, researchers and extension officers explored the future of farm management (education, research and consultancy) in Australia. Major outcomes were that farm management practice is proceeding informally to undertake decisions supporting socially and ecologically friendly, sustainable commercial production agriculture. However the risks of lack of integration, a reductionist approach to only on-farm practice, stagnation of academic programs to respond to leading edge industry initiatives, as well as ill-defined boundaries for farm management research were identified. The analysis indicated that formal educational models, research and extension-consultancy frameworks of an holistic nature, and a multiple bottom line perspective, were appropriate avenues for the future development of farm management practice and research. Workshop participants perceived that a farm management strand emphasising business management rather than technology could be a better educational model. Also there was an emphasis in highlighting the importance of linked development and partnership amongst the different players. The Workshop created the conditions for development of networks among industry, education and consultative research.Farm Management,

The Australian Farm Business Management Network: Industry, Education, Consultancy and Research Coming Together

Under the sponsorship of the University of Sydney, on 5-6th December 2002 the future of farm management in Australia was discussed. The fundamental conclusion achieved by key primary industry representatives, corporate executives, academics, consultants and researchers is that farm management will have a more significant role to play in the future than previously in servicing the primary sector. The idea of farm management as a profession was proposed. Its basis would be business management supported by farming systems and technology, and using an holistic approach to action (i.e. finance, people and environment). The new profession of Farm Business Management would seek to influence education, research, consultancy and extension in Australia. Interested parties participating of the 2002 National Farm Management Workshop came away with the idea of championing a consultative network, constituted by interested institutions and interested individuals, as a first step in the process of nurturing the future development of farm business management. By integrating farmers and academics with corporate executives, consultants and researchers the objective is to behave as a consultative group. This group will influence educational models, implement consultancy and research strategies, and network in social and professional terms. Moreover, this network will provide a systematic opportunity for the channelling of farm business management and farming systems related information at different levels for education, extension and scientific purposes. This network is called the Australian Farm Business Management Network (AFBMnetwork).Institutional and Behavioral Economics,